Reinforced recovery algorithm

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -2,6 +2,15 @@
 
 All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 
+## [1.0.33] - 2026-05-21
+
+### Fixed
+- **Critical**: Fixed extraction algorithm structural bias causing the table to consistently lose. Two hardcoded constraints in `extract_balanced_safe` prevented the algorithm from steering away from expensive outcomes even when the redistribution balance was deeply negative: (1) the correction floor `0.35` meant an expensive outcome always retained ≥35% of its base weight regardless of balance; (2) `max_drift=0.4` set a `lower_bound` of `0.6 × base_weight`, keeping the most probable (and usually most expensive) result at ~30-35% selection probability even under maximum deficit. Together these made recovery mathematically too slow.
+
+### Technical Details
+- `extract_balanced_safe()`: both `max_drift` and the correction floor are now adaptive. A `balance_severity` scalar (0→1, proportional to deficit vs current stake) scales `max_drift` from `0.40` → `0.95` and the correction floor from `0.35` → `0.05` as the shortfall deepens. When the balance is neutral the function is mathematically identical to the previous version. Updated benchmark tests to reflect that `extract_balanced_safe` and `candidate_v4` are now distinct implementations.
+- Updated user agent string from MbetterClient/1.0r32 to MbetterClient/1.0r33
+
 ## [10.0.22] - 2026-03-16
 
 ### Fixed

build.py

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ from typing import List, Dict, Any
 # Build configuration
 BUILD_CONFIG = {
     'app_name': 'MbetterClient',
-    'app_version': '1.0.32',
+    'app_version': '1.0.33',
     'description': 'Cross-platform multimedia client application',
     'author': 'MBetter Team',
     'entry_point': 'main.py',

main.py

@@ -217,7 +217,7 @@ Examples:
     parser.add_argument(
         '--version',
         action='version',
-        version='MbetterClient 1.0.32'
+        version='MbetterClient 1.0.33'
     )
 
     # Timer options

mbetterclient/__init__.py

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ MbetterClient - Cross-platform multimedia client application
 A multi-threaded application with video playback, web dashboard, and REST API integration.
 """
 
-__version__ = "1.0.32"
+__version__ = "1.0.33"
 __author__ = "MBetter Project"
 __email__ = "dev@mbetter.net"
 __description__ = "Cross-platform multimedia client with video overlay and web dashboard"

mbetterclient/config/settings.py

@@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ class ApiConfig:
     
     # Request settings
     verify_ssl: bool = True
-    user_agent: str = "MbetterClient/1.0r32"
+    user_agent: str = "MbetterClient/1.0r33"
     max_response_size_mb: int = 100
     
     # Additional API client settings
@@ -403,7 +403,7 @@ class AppSettings:
     timer: TimerConfig = field(default_factory=TimerConfig)
 
     # Application settings
-    version: str = "1.0.32"
+    version: str = "1.0.33"
     debug_mode: bool = False
     dev_message: bool = False  # Enable debug mode showing only message bus messages
     debug_messages: bool = False  # Show all messages passing through the message bus on screen

mbetterclient/core/games_thread.py

@@ -71,9 +71,19 @@ def extract_balanced_safe(results, odds, current_balance, stake, payouts, house_
     mean_payout = sum(payout_values) / len(payout_values)
     span = max(max_achievable - min_achievable, 1.0)
 
+    # How severely negative is the balance relative to this stake?
+    # 0.0 = balanced, 1.0 = deficit >= 2× stake (strong steering needed)
+    balance_severity = min(max(-current_balance, 0.0) / max(stake * 2.0, 1.0), 1.0)
+    # Widen the drift window as deficit grows: 0.40 when balanced → 0.95 at full severity
+    effective_max_drift = max_drift + (0.95 - max_drift) * balance_severity
+    # Lower the correction floor as deficit grows: 0.35 when balanced → 0.05 at full severity
+    correction_floor = 0.35 * (1.0 - 0.857 * balance_severity)
+
     ext_logger.info(
         f"🔍 [EXTRACT_BALANCED] Step 3 - payout range=[{min_achievable:.2f}, {max_achievable:.2f}], "
-        f"base_target={expected_redistribution:.2f}, adjusted_target={target_payout:.2f}"
+        f"base_target={expected_redistribution:.2f}, adjusted_target={target_payout:.2f}, "
+        f"balance_severity={balance_severity:.3f}, effective_max_drift={effective_max_drift:.3f}, "
+        f"correction_floor={correction_floor:.4f}"
     )
 
     final_weights = []
@@ -84,10 +94,10 @@ def extract_balanced_safe(results, odds, current_balance, stake, payouts, house_
         payout_position = abs(payout - mean_payout) / span
         centrality = 1.0 - payout_position
         blended = (0.50 * closeness) + (0.35 * normalized_base_probs[i]) + (0.15 * centrality)
-        correction = 0.35 + (1.9 * blended)
+        correction = correction_floor + ((2.25 - correction_floor) * blended)
 
-        lower_bound = base_weight * (1 - max_drift)
-        upper_bound = base_weight * (1 + max_drift)
+        lower_bound = base_weight * (1 - effective_max_drift)
+        upper_bound = base_weight * (1 + effective_max_drift)
         corrected = base_weight * correction
         final_weight = max(min(corrected, upper_bound), lower_bound)
         final_weights.append(final_weight)

mbetterclient/web_dashboard/app.py

@@ -247,7 +247,7 @@ class WebDashboard(ThreadedComponent):
         def inject_globals():
             return {
                 'app_name': 'MbetterClient',
-                'app_version': '1.0.32',
+                'app_version': '1.0.33',
                 'current_time': time.time(),
             }
         

test_extract_match_updated.py

@@ -337,7 +337,8 @@ def test_extract_balanced_safe_benchmark_documents_target_error_vs_legacy():
     assert metrics["current"] > 0
     assert metrics["candidate_v4"] > 0
     assert metrics["legacy"] > 0
-    assert abs(metrics["current"] - metrics["candidate_v4"]) < 1e-9
+    # current now uses adaptive max_drift/correction_floor; it may differ from candidate_v4
+    assert metrics["current"] <= metrics["candidate_v4"] * 1.10
 
 
 def test_extract_balanced_candidate_v2_benchmark_documents_three_way_comparison():
@@ -356,7 +357,7 @@ def test_extract_balanced_candidate_v2_benchmark_documents_three_way_comparison(
     assert metrics["candidate_v2"] > 0
     assert metrics["candidate_v3"] > 0
     assert metrics["legacy"] > 0
-    assert abs(metrics["current"] - metrics["candidate_v4"]) < 1e-9
+    assert metrics["current"] <= metrics["candidate_v4"] * 1.10
 
 
 def test_extract_balanced_controller_ordering_across_seeded_scenarios():
@@ -392,7 +393,7 @@ def test_extract_balanced_controller_ordering_across_seeded_scenarios():
     assert totals["candidate_v3"] > 0
     assert totals["candidate_v4"] > 0
     assert totals["legacy"] > 0
-    assert abs(totals["current"] - totals["candidate_v4"]) < 1e-9
+    assert totals["current"] <= totals["candidate_v4"] * 1.10
     assert totals["current"] < totals["legacy"]
     assert sum(wins.values()) == len(scenarios)
     assert len(per_scenario) == len(scenarios)